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10 nov 2014 21:06

Lessons from the fall of the Wall for Turkey

If you fell into a coma in East Germany in October 1989 and woke up a few months later – like the protagonist’s mother in the German movie “Good Bye Lenin!” – you would find yourself in a completely different country. This is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

10 nov 2014 16:32

Navigating Brazil’s Path to Growth

Brazil’s macroeconomic management will face four major immediate challenges in the near future.  The response to them will be strengthened if we could have some indication of how to steer the Brazilian economy back to a growth route. A first major challenge will be the upward realignment of domestic regulated prices, in a context of [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

08 nov 2014 16:53

Fourth Quarter Off to a Good Start with Strong Job Gains, Falling Unemployment

The first major report on the health of the US economy for the fourth quarter of 2014 showed continued gains in the job market. Payroll jobs were up by more than 200,000 for the ninth month in a row. With upward revisions to August and September data, the twelve-month jobs gain was 2,646,000. Annual job [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 nov 2014 16:33

Turkey: I see debt people

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I argue (with data, as usual) that despite the recent pullback in credit growth, debt is still an important issue in Turkey. I show why low stocks of debt are misleading, and that several indicators point to a growing problem. Anyway, you can read the whole thing [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 nov 2014 15:16

To the G-20: It Is Demand Deficiency, Not Supply

The Eurozone countries and Japan are now falling back into recession/depression and deflation, and their public debt levels are grossly excessive, and still rising. The deepening economic crisis in these two large economic blocks could have serious implications for other G-20 countries, as aggregate demand is already weak globally. Nonetheless, based on the advice of [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 nov 2014 09:57

Turkey’s (Erdogan’s) Ak Palace and the new Reich Chancellery

Hello Again after another absence from blogging. I return thanks to my beloved Hurriyet Daily News (HDN), as I explain below. But I will try to stick to blogging regularly this time around. Below is what was supposed to my HDN column for today. However, when you buy the paper today or when you go [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

06 nov 2014 15:43

The Struggle for Free Trade in Asia Pacific

If the APEC meeting can agree on the proposed regional free trade plan and a reasonable implementation schedule, it would take a leap into faster regional growth and prosperity. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum on November 10-11 will take place amidst the rebalancing of China, the United States and the integration of Southeast Asia, [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

05 nov 2014 18:25

The City of London In a New Geopolitical Order

The City of London, Not Simply A “Regional” Hub Among the world’s financial hubs, the City of London is most in search of a new identity that would allow it to adapt to an evolving geopolitical scene. Global financial hubs tend to be the key financial center of the country, region or continent they are [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

05 nov 2014 17:51

Liquidity Glut, Infrastructure Finance Drought and Development Banks

The world economy faces huge infrastructure financing needs that are not being matched on the supply side. Emerging market economies, in particular, have had to deal with international long-term private debt financing options that are less supportive of infrastructure finance. While unconventional monetary policies in advanced countries in the aftermath of the global financial crisis [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

04 nov 2014 16:39

A Coordinated Fiscal Response to Revive the Euro Area Economy

The worsening of the economic situation in the euro area raises serious questions about the capacity of policymakers to get the situation under control.  Member States have limited room of manoeuvre to implement a counter-cyclical budgetary policy under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).  The European Central Bank (ECB) is confronted the zero bound interest [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com