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07 ott 2014 18:55

The Growth of Shadow Banking

By Gaston Gelos and Nico Valckx: Shadow banking has grown by leaps and bounds around the world in the last decade.  It is now worth over $70 trillion. We take a closer look at what has driven this growth to help countries figure out what policies to use to minimize the risks involved. In our analysis, we’ve found [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 ott 2014 18:48

Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties Weigh on IMF’s Projections

By Olivier Blanchard The recovery continues, but it is weak and uneven. You have now seen the basic numbers from our latest projections in the October 2014 World Economic Outlook released today.  We forecast world growth to be 3.3% in 2014, down 0.1% from our July forecast, and 3.8% in 2015, down 0.2% from our July forecast. [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 ott 2014 18:41

Does a New Eurozone Recession Threaten U.S. Growth?

It’s a perfect score for Germany’s economic reports so far this week—perfectly negative. In two days we’ve seen two macro updates for Europe’s biggest economy and in both cases the numbers were deeply disappointing. Yesterday we learned that new manufacturing orders suffered a substantially larger-than-expected decline in August, followed by today’s news that industrial output plunged 4% during that [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 ott 2014 18:38

The Labor Market Conditions Index: Use With Care

I was curious to see how the press would report on the Federal Reserve Board’s new Labor Market Conditions Index.  My prior was that the reporting should be confusing at best.  My favorite so far is from Reuters, via the WSJ: Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has cited the new index as a broader gauge of employment conditions than the unemployment [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

07 ott 2014 14:56

The Economic Future (if Any) of “Novorossiya”

Last May, I posted an item on the economic situation in the rebellious regions of Eastern Ukraine, or “Novorossiya” (New Russia), to use the term increasingly favored by separatists and  their Russian sponsors. Novorossiya was the name of a province of Tsarist Russia that occupied much of the southern part of present-day Ukraine, stretching all [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

06 ott 2014 03:29

How Turkey will not escape the middle-income trap

In the concluding statement of its 2014 Article IV Mission to Turkey, which was released on Oct. 3, the IMF noted that without structural reforms, Turkey was likely to be left in a middle-income trap as a result of slowing growth. Here is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

06 ott 2014 02:36

I am back… with my latest HDN column and blogging from the IMF-WB Meetings

Just a short note to say that I am back… It has been a very busy couple of months, but I will try to continue blogging regularly from now on… I will be posting an addendum to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column either later today (Monday) or tomorrow to for an official kick-off. [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

04 ott 2014 23:29

Understanding Modern Money, Guest Post

Chris Mayer attended our Post Keynesian conference at UMKC last week. He published the following in Capital&Crisis, Agora Financial’s newsletter. This is republished with his permission. Chris has a knack for putting things simply and clearly. Enjoy. Understanding Modern Money By Chris Mayer “We can’t run out of money,” economist L. Randall Wray said. The [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

03 ott 2014 18:23

Strong Job Growth, Big Revisions Send US Unemployment Below 6 Percent

The US unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in September, dropping below 6 percent for the first time in more than six years. The decrease was powered, in part, by strong growth of payroll jobs. Payroll jobs increased by 248,000 in September, well above the average for the year to date. In the same report, [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com

02 ott 2014 19:49

China’s New Normal

For months, China’s economic performance has been grim. That reflects the shift to the new normal. July was not a good economic month in China, except for exports.  More bad signs of sluggishness came with the preliminary August manufacturing data. An array of indicators seem to reflect faltering growth, from industrial output and retail sales [...]

economia | ecomonitor.com